Gold Prices See Seventh Day Of Gains After Terrorist Attack In London

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-23/gold-prices-see-seventh-day-gains-after-terrorist-attack-london

Gold Prices See Seventh Day Of Gains After Terrorist Attack In London

 – Gold prices higher seven days in row – best gains since Brexit
– Gold spikes to three week high after terrorist attack in London
– Global stocks fell yesterday after attack in London 
– Stocks resilient today and start day flat
– Gold rallies 4.1% in recent days as stock prices falter
– Sterling fell yesterday but flat today
– Risk of terrorist 'spectacular' shows importance of gold
– Trump faces big test today and failure may impact stocks
– Silver rose 0.3% yesterday and is another 0.5% higher today to $17.69 per ounce
– Uncertainty to provide support for gold and should test resistance at $1,250 per ounce and above that at $1,300 per ounce

Gold prices reached a 3-week high yesterday after the terrorist attack in London pushed gold to $1,251.30 per ounce - the highest it's been since February 28.

Gold prices have risen over 4% in the last seven days as global equities slumped and risk aversion returned to markets. Gold has consolidated on the gains of the last seven sessions today and prices are marginally higher just above $1,250 per ounce.

London’s worst attack in more than a decade left five people dead, including the assailant and the police officer he stabbed, and at least 40 injured.

The history of these attacks, including those in France, Germany and Belgium last year as well those in Madrid and London more than 10 years ago, show there was little impact on economic confidence or financial markets. However, these attacks, despite being tragic were relatively small in scale and not of the magnitude of the September 11 attacks in New York.

The concern is that with economies fragile and markets looking very over valued, a spate of new terror attacks or indeed what is termed a terrorist "spectacular" akin to '911' or simulated attacks across the western world as warned of by Isis recruits, could be damaging.

Markets are now also getting jittery about President Trump's  ability to push through policies that may benefit the U.S. economy. This is  creating doubts on the so-called reflation trade that has seen stocks become "irrationally exuberant" in recent weeks.

Today's focus is on whether Trump can gather enough support in a vote today to pass a bill to roll back Obamacare. It is the first major test of his legislative ability and whether he can keep his promises made to his supporters and the electorate.

Failure to eliminate the healthcare plan would suggest that Trump's efforts to cut taxes and boost infrastructure will also be impeded. This could see stocks in the U.S. come under pressure and lead to renewed safe haven demand for gold.

Heightened political uncertainty in the U.S., the UK and indeed the EU will support gold and should lead to it testing resistance at the $1,250 to $1,260 per ounce level and above that resistance at $1,300 per ounce.

Silver rose 0.3 percent to $17.54 yesterday and is another 0.4% higher today to $17.69 per ounce.

Platinum and palladium also made gains and were up 0.5 percent at $962.55 per ounce and 0.3 percent to $788.85 respectively. Both have eked out further gains today with platinum at $968 and palladium rising 1.2% to $801 per ounce.

 

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary

Gold’s Six-Day Winning Streak Ranks as Best Gain Since Brexit (Bloomberg.com)

Four dead, at least 20 injured in UK parliament ‘terrorist’ attack (Reuters.com)

U.S. Stocks Rise as Rout Eases; Bonds, Gold Climb: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Sears Plummets After Filing Sparks Concern That End Is Near (Bloomberg.com)

Lead surges 4% after substantial decline in warehouse stocks (FinFeed.com)

Gold – Looking At A Massive Breakout (SeekingAlpha.com)

Don’t look now, but inflation may be about to surge – CNBC (CNBC.com)

Anger after Eurozone finance ministers say southern Europe blew cash on 'drinks and women' (Telegraph.co.uk)

Why investors are no better than lab monkeys (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

Video: Why Lower Oil Could Drive Gold Higher (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

23 Mar: USD 1,247.90, GBP 997.95 & EUR 1,157.93 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 1,246.10, GBP 999.50 & EUR 1,154.76 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 1,232.05, GBP 989.21 & EUR 1,141.37 per ounce
20 Mar: USD 1,233.00, GBP 993.92 & EUR 1,146.57 per ounce
17 Mar: USD 1,228.75, GBP 991.85 & EUR 1,140.53 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 1,225.60, GBP 998.74 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

23 Mar: USD 17.55, GBP 14.04 & EUR 16.27 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 17.58, GBP 14.12 & EUR 16.30 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 17.31, GBP 13.88 & EUR 16.01 per ounce
20 Mar: USD 17.23, GBP 13.92 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
17 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.08 & EUR 16.21 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 17.46, GBP 14.21 & EUR 16.28 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

- Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported
- Silver 1/ 70th The Price of Gold – Silver Eagles Sales Jump
- The Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today
- Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’
- Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises
- Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?
- EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
- Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
- Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
- Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
- “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe

Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

Interested in learning more about physical gold and silver?
Call GoldCore and speak with a gold and silver specialist today

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Craig Hemke Exclusive: Physical Metals Demand Plus Manipulation Suits Will Break Paper Market

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Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-21/demand-physical-gold-really-collapsing

 

Interested in precious metals investing or storage? Contact us HERE 

 

 

 

 

Is Demand For Physical Gold Really Collapsing?

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall & Dave Kranzler (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

 

Seriously? “Simon Black” (it’s a nom de plume) wrote an article titled “Demand For Physical Is Collapsing.” He focused on retail bullion demand numbers. The headline and the content is largely fake news as it focuses on the demand for minted coins vs the paper gold market. We’re not really sure about the intent of article, but the content was devoid of any relevance to the actual global demand for physical gold.

 

While the retail minted coin and small-size bar demand is down from last year’s levels, there’s two factors to explain this. First is price. The price of gold and silver was lower in early 2016 than it is now. The price of gold in February 2017 averaged $1230-$1240 while the price of gold a year ago February averaged $1175. Retail buyers of gold/silver coins are highly sensitive to price and tend to chase the price higher, up to a point. On this basis, it’s not surprising that more minted coins were sold a year ago compared to this year. This “price effect” on the demand for retail gold and silver coins likely explains about 25% of the demand comparison between 2016 and now.

 

The second factor is the economy. Remember, the end user of minted bullion products is largely the retail buyer. In the first two months of 2017, real wages have declined. Even more negative for retail sales of any sort is the fact that real disposable income has been declining on a year over basis since December 2015:

 

 

While we at the Shadow of Truth do not consider buying and owning bullion to be “discretionary,” retail sales, including sales of bullion coins, is highly dependent on the relative level of real disposable income. Thus once again it should not surprise, based on just looking at retail demand for physical bullion, that retail bullion sales are falling.

 

On the other hand, the Black article purports the idea that retail bullion sales represents global demand for gold and silver. Nothing could be further from the truth. Retail demand at the margin has no effect on price other than maybe the price premiums in the coin market based on mint supply and retail demand.

 

The majority of gold bullion demand comes from the jewelry industry, eastern hemisphere Central Banks and sophisticated wealthy and institutional investors. India and China alone import more gold than is produced from mines globally. This is why Black’s “paper gold” price is rising. It’s why the BIS and western Central Banks have failed to eliminate the significance of gold in the global monetary system.

 

Gold imports into India jumped 175% in February from February 2016 to 96.4 tonnes (LINK). In fact, official gold imports into India have been rising since December. And that does not include dore bars or smuggled gold. 179 tonnes of gold was withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in February. This is 60% higher than February 2016. The Russian Central Bank gold reserves have been rising almost monthly since mid-2007.

 

To claim that the global demand for physical gold is collapsing is seeded in either ignorance or mal-intent. But either way, the assertion is outright idiotic when the facts are examined, which we do in today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth:

 

 

 

 

Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

 

 

 

 

Is Demand For Physical Gold Really Collapsing?

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall & Dave Kranzler (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

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Silver 1/ 70th The Price of Gold – Silver Eagles Buying Jumps

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-21/silver-1-70th-price-gold-%E2%80%93-silver-eagles-buying-jumps

Silver 1/ 70th The Price of Gold –  Silver Eagles Buying Jumps

 - Silver just 1/70th the price of gold
- Silver at $17.50 per ounce set to rise "faster than gold"
- Silver Eagles (1 oz) buying jumps to 715,000 this week
- “Supply may drop following mine closures” - Standard Chartered
- Industrial demand “will remain strong” - CPM Group
- Silver is substantially undervalued versus gold
- Gold silver ratio to fall back below 30

Silver looks set to outperform gold again in the coming months due to falling mine supply and continuing robust global demand.

Source: Bloomberg

Silver at just $17.50 per ounce remains about 1/ 70th of the price of gold at $1,230/oz today. This gold silver ratio of 70.3 continues to drive silver 'stackers,' value investors and those seeking a better return than gold to accumulate silver at what are seen at these still relatively cheap levels.

This is seen in continuing robust demand for the very popular silver bullion coin this week. The U.S. Mint sold 715,000 of Silver Eagles ( 1 oz) this week, to bring the year to date sales totals for 2017 to a robust - 7,557,500 Silver Eagle coins.

US Mint Bullion Coin Sales (Number of coins)
	Monday Sales	Last Week	Feb Sales	Mar Sales	2017 Sales
Silver Eagles (1 oz)	715,000	220,000	1,215,000	1,215,000	7,557,500
Gold Eagles (1 oz)	4,000	2,500	21,000	10,000	117,500
Gold Buffalos (1 oz)	1,500	2,500	15,000	4,500	51,500

Source: GoldCore via Coin News

We have seen very robust demand for silver again this year, especially from clients in the UK and Ireland buying silver bullion coins (now VAT free) such as Silver Eagles. We are seeing even greater demand for Silver Maples and Silver Philharmonics.

The increasingly favorable supply and demand fundamentals of the silver market were reported on by Bloomberg in an article entitled 'Silver Seen Climbing Faster Than Gold as Yellen Wakens Bulls'.

According to Bloomberg:

Investors may be better off with silver rather than gold. The Federal Reserve’s pledge to stick to its dovish outlook on U.S. monetary policy has fueled a rally in precious metals and silver usually beats its more valuable peer in a rising market.

After the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank was willing to tolerate inflation temporarily overshooting its 2 percent goal and intended to keep its policy accommodative for “some time.” UBS Group AG said the gradual pace of tightening means negative rates will deepen, the dollar weaken and gold rise.

The gold-to-silver ratio rose to 71 on March 14, the most in two months, and above an average of 62 in the past decade and a low of 32 in 2011, showing there’s potential for silver to appreciate versus its peer. Spot silver added 0.9 percent to $17.4964 an ounce, extending a 2.7 percent gain a day earlier.

The metal, sometimes called “poor man’s gold,” has risen more than 9 percent this year, while gold’s up less than 7 percent. The unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s administration and risks surrounding the outcome of elections in France and Germany this year have driven haven demand.

Supply may drop following mine closures and prices need to rise to boost output, according to Suki Cooper, analyst with Standard Chartered Plc in New York.

On demand, industrial use is expected to be roughly flat this year, though still near a record, said Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group. “Use in solar panels, electronics, batteries, jewelry, chemical process catalysts, and other manufactured products will remain strong,” he said.

Bloomberg

 

www.Sharelynx.com 

We see silver as undervalued vis-à-vis gold but more especially vis-à-vis stocks, bonds and many property markets. Rather than selling the financial insurance that is gold, we would advise reducing allocations to stocks, bonds and property and allocating to physical silver.

We expect the gold silver ratio to fall back below 30 in the coming months and years. Indeed, given the favorable supply demand dynamics in the silver market and the fact that a huge amount of silver, unlike gold, has been used in industrial applications in the last 150 years and this continues with new tech uses today, we expect the gold silver ratio to mean revert to the long term average of 15 to 1 (see chart above).

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary

Gold prices consolidate (BullionDesk.com)

Gold below $1230 on French debate outcome-led risk-on (FXStreet.com)

Gold prices ease in Asia on Fed rate hike views, risk eyed (Investing.com)

Yellen Surprises Hedge Funds Who Cut Gold Bets Before Rally (Bloomberg.com)

G20’s protectionism shift hits global stocks, dollar at six-week low (Reuters.com)

Gold to rise further on Fed’s dovish outlook and European uncertainties - Analysts (CNBC.com)

Rising Demand, Falling Supplies Equals Higher Gold Prices (DailyReckoning.com)

When Money Is "Free," Discipline Evaporates; When Discipline Evaporates, Decisions Are Disastrous (CharlesHughSmith.blogspot.ie)

Platinum remains too cheap compared to gold (SeekingAlpha.com)

If You Like Gold, It's Time To Buy It (Forbes.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

21 Mar: USD 1,232.05, GBP 989.21 & EUR 1,141.37 per ounce
20 Mar: USD 1,233.00, GBP 993.92 & EUR 1,146.57 per ounce
17 Mar: USD 1,228.75, GBP 991.85 & EUR 1,140.53 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 1,225.60, GBP 998.74 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

21 Mar: USD 17.31, GBP 13.88 & EUR 16.01 per ounce
20 Mar: USD 17.23, GBP 13.92 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
17 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.08 & EUR 16.21 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 17.46, GBP 14.21 & EUR 16.28 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

- The Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today
- Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’
- Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises
- Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?
- EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
- Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
- Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
- Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
- “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe
- Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling
- Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” – Rickards

Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

Interested in learning more about physical gold and silver?
Call GoldCore and speak with a gold and silver specialist today

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The Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-20/best-ways-invest-gold-today

The Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today

- The cost of buying and selling gold
- How to buy gold on the cheap
- How to avoid paying capital gains tax (CGT) on your gold
- Open an account with one of the online bullion dealers – the likes of GoldMoney, GoldCore or Bullion Vault
-  Gold Sovereigns and Gold Britannias make for a considerable saving on cost because of the CGT exemption

Gold Britannias and Sovereigns are free of Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

Dominic Frisby has looked at the best ways to invest in gold in the UK’s best selling financial publication Money Week.

Frisby looks at the various ways to invest in and own gold and points how gold ETFs are not much cheaper than online gold bullion dealers such as GoldMoney, GoldCore or Bullion Vault and yet there is the difficulty of taking delivery which is "cumbersome."

The other important consideration when investing in gold is to consider the tax implications and the capital gains tax (CGT).

Buyers of gold ETFs and digital gold through e-gold providers like Bullion Vault and GoldMoney are subject to capital gains tax. However buyers of Gold Britannias and Gold Sovereigns are not subject to this expensive tax:

Competition between ETFs and bullion dealers has conspired to drive down prices, much to the benefit of the consumer. But there is one huge cost that neither of these methods is able to avoid – tax. This assumes you’re not buying your gold via an ISA or a SIPP, which it is, for the most part, possible to do via ETF or bullion dealer.

Capital gains tax (CGT) currently stands at 20% in the UK for higher rate taxpayers and 10% for lower. Funds don’t pay CGT. It is paid by the investor when they sell or redeem, assuming they made a profit. It kicks in once you have made profits of more than £11,100 in a year (£11,300 from next tax year).

So over and above that level, you’re facing an unavoidable 10% or 20% cost for buying and selling gold at a profit. It used to be 18% or 28%. We have George Osborne and his team to thank for lowering it – but even at current rates, it’s a considerable dent to profits.

There’s another method of buying gold (and silver), which, quite legally, avoids this cost altogether. There is a slightly higher premium to spot when you buy, there are slightly higher storage costs, and there is a slight discount to spot when you sell – but we are talking about a few per cent here, nothing like 20%.

Given the potential savings involved, it’s surprising that more UK investors don’t buy their gold and silver in this way. The method I’m describing, if you haven’t already figured it out, is to buy sovereigns and Britannias.

Frisby concludes the piece by pointing out how GoldCore offer capital gains tax (CGT) free gold sovereigns and gold britannias and how Frisby likes GoldCore:

"I like Goldcore. You can deal with them either over the phone or open an account online. You can buy sovereigns, Britannias, bars and probably even bells, and they’ll take care of the storage too."

Access the Article On Money Week here

 

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary

Gold hits 2-wk high as Fed rate outlook weighs on dollar (Yahoo Finance)

Gold holds firm as Fed rate hike guidance weighs on dollar (Reuters)

Treasuries Resume Fed Gains as Stock Rally Falters (Bloomberg)

UPDATE 2-Russia's Nornickel says its fund buys palladium from central bank (Reuters)

China gold premiums rise on limited supply (Reuters)

Why Yellen’s first bazooka shot didn’t hurt gold (MarketWatch)

Yellen Surprises Hedge Funds Who Cut Gold Wagers Before Rally (Bloomberg)

Gold Explorers Set for `17’s Best Week as Moribund Metal Stirs (Bloomberg)

More Proof of Janet Yellen’s Idiocy (DailyReckoning)

Gold and Silver Britannia Coins from The Royal Mint (CoinWeek)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

20 Mar: USD 1,233.00, GBP 993.92 & EUR 1,146.57 per ounce
17 Mar: USD 1,228.75, GBP 991.85 & EUR 1,140.53 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 1,225.60, GBP 998.74 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 1,196.55, GBP 983.56 & EUR 1,127.15 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

20 Mar: USD 17.23, GBP 13.92 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
17 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.08 & EUR 16.21 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 17.46, GBP 14.21 & EUR 16.28 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 16.89, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.92 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

- Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’
- Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises
- Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?
- EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
- Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
- Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
- Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
- “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe
- Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling
- Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” – Rickards
- Art Market Bubble Bursting – Gauguin Priced At $85 Million Collapses 74%

Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

Interested in learning more about physical gold and silver?
Call GoldCore and speak with a gold and silver specialist today

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Technical vs. Fundamental, Report 19 Mar, 2017

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-20/technical-vs-fundamental-report-19-mar-2017

Every week we talk about the supply and demand fundamentals. We were surprised to see an article about us this week. The writer thought that our technical analysis cannot see what’s going on in the market. We don’t want to fight with people, we prefer to focus on ideas. So let’s compare and contrast ordinary technical analysis with what Monetary Metals does.

Technical analysis, in all of its forms, uses the past price movements to predict the future price movements. In some cases (e.g. momentum analysis) it calculates an intermediate signal from the price signal (momentum is the first derivative of price). But no matter the style, one analyzes price history to guess the next price move.

This is necessarily probabilistic. There is no way to know that a particular price move will follow the chart pattern you see on the screen. There is no certainty. And when it does work, it is often because of self-fulfilling expectations. Since all traders have access to the same charts, and the same chart-reading theories, they can buy or sell en masse when the chart signals them to do so.

We are not here to argue for or against technical analysis. We simply want to say that it’s not what we are doing. Not at all.

Our analysis is based on different ideas. The key idea is that there is a connection between the spot and futures market. That connection is arbitrage. Think of each market as a platform that moves up and down on its own vertical track. The two tracks are close together. And the platforms are connected to each other by a spring. Suppose platform A is a bit above platform B. If you push up on A, then the spring stretches a bit more and will pull B up, though perhaps not as much. The same happens if you push down on B.

Conversely, if you push down on A, then it will compress the spring and platform B will tend to go down, though not as much.

A and B are the futures and spot markets for gold (the same analogy applies to silver). Arbitrage works just like a spring. If the price in the futures market is greater than the price in the spot market, then there is a profit to carry gold—to buy metal in the spot market and sell a futures contract. If the price of spot is higher, then the profit is to be made by decarrying—to sell metal and buy a future.

There are two keys to understanding this. One, when leveraged speculators push up the price of gold futures contracts, then that increases the basis spread. A greater basis is a greater incentive to the arbitrageur to take the trade. Two, when the arbitrageur buys spot and sells a future, the very act of putting on this trade compresses the spread.

If someone were to come along and sell enough futures contracts to push down the price of gold by $50 or $150 or whatever amount is alleged, then this selling would be on futures only. It would push the price of futures below the price of spot, a condition called backwardation.

Backwardation just has not happened at the times when the stories of the big “smash downs” have claimed. Monetary Metals has published intraday basis charts during these events many times.

The above does not describe technical analysis. It describes physics—how the market functions at a mechanical level.

There are other ways to check this. If there was a large naked short position in a contract that was headed into expiry, how would the basis behave? The arbitrage theory predicts the opposite basis move. We will leave the answer out as an exercise for the interested reader, as thinking this through is really good work to understand the dynamics of the gold and silver markets (and you can Google our past articles, where we discuss it).

This check can be observed every month, as either gold or silver has a contract expiring (right now it’s gold, as the April contract is close to First Notice Day).

This week, the prices of the metals both rose. The price of gold is almost back to where it was the prior week, but that of silver is not.

Below, we will show the only true picture of the gold and silver supply and demand. But first, the price and ratio charts.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It moved sideways this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

NB: we switched from the April to the June gold contract.

As the price of the dollar fell (inverse of the rising price of gold, measured in dollars) we see the cobasis (our measure of scarcity) increased a bit. This means the buying in gold, which pushed up the price, was buying more of physical than of futures. This seems to be the new pattern of late, though it is sputtering a bit like an engine trying to start up and run at a steady RPM.

Our calculated fundamental price of gold is up nearly $50. It is now over $1,400.

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

The story is the same in silver. Rising price accompanied by rising scarcity.

The silver fundamental price rose 50 cents. It is now aboit $1.30 over market.

© 2017 Monetary Metals

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Did The Fed Just Hint At Monster Inflation?

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-19/did-fed-just-hint-monster-inflation

We won’t bore you with yet another article about the recent rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This move was widely expected, as the Fed members had been hinting this would happen for several months now. Additionally, the new ‘hints’ about an additional two rate hikes later this year also didn’t surprise the market as we believe this was already priced in. The slight hike in the Federal Funds Rate estimate for 2019 to 3% (from 2.9%) didn’t see to worry the markets as the indices were all sent higher on the back of the FOMC meeting.

The ‘dot plot’ also caught our attention. Even though Yellen specifically announced the Fed was aiming for at least three rate hikes, the dot plot chart shows there are three members who are still expecting a maximum of two rate hikes. Surprising, considering the most recent interest rate decision was almost unanimous.

Source: Bloomberg

It made us scratch our heads as there didn’t seem to be any logical explanation at all, but then the Royal Bank of Canada came up with a theory which makes a lot of sense. Fed member Lockhart (Fed Atlanta- resigned at the end of February and could not possibly have submitted a new rate hike expectation. According to RBC, this could mean his (temporary?) replacement just submitted the same position as the previous time the Fed Atlanta was indicating, before Bostic was appointed as the new President and CEO of Fed Atlanta.

A logical explanation, but this wasn’t the only ‘interesting’ thing after the FOMC meeting. In the very first paragraph after officially announcing the rate hike, we could read this:

“ The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal.”

The logical explanation here would be the interpretation the Fed wouldn’t allow the inflation rate to run at a higher percentage than 2% for a prolonged period of time, but the statement could also be read as the Fed explicity warning of a much higher inflation rate than originally anticipated. We know the market has always been prone to overshooting, either on the positive or negative side of the equation. We don’t think we have ever heard the Fed talk about ‘symmetric’ inflation, but as the FOMC members are leaking more intel than the Exson Valdez spilled oil, this position will undoubtedly be clarified in a ‘coincidental’ interview or public speech.

Source: Federal Reserve

Looking at the expectations of the Fed board members, they are practically still confirming ‘money’ is losing its value pretty fast. Whilst the median expected inflation rate is pretty close to 2%, an additional two-step rate hike would still put the ‘real’ interest rate below zero. And that’s what counts; your money is worth less day after day.

>>> Read our Guide to Gold and protect yourself against inflation!

Secular Investor offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Commodity Report.

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King Dollar; Three Bearish patterns in a row, says Joe Friday

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-17/king-dollar-three-bearish-patterns-row-says-joe-friday

King Dollar has been on a roll the past three years, as it has rallied over 40% since the 2011 lows. Below takes a look at the US$ over the past couple of years.

Let me make this clear, the trend in King Dollar remains up. The first chart reflects that the Dollar is attempting to breakout above dual rising channel resistance.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar has been on an upward roll since the lows of 2011. At the same time the Dollar started pushing higher, Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners have been hit very hard! At the same time the US$ is testing the top of a 10-year rising channel, it is also facing “TWO” Fibonacci levels (61% retracement of the 2001 highs/2008 lows and the 161% Fibonacci extension level of the 2008 low/2009 highs).

With King Dollar facing these three challenge points, we take a much closer look at the Dollar below-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The trend remains up in the US$ over the past year (remains inside green shaded rising channel). Past three weeks, King$ has created reversal patterns (Bearish wicks) at (1), at short-term falling resistance.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; If the US$ breaks support at the 100 level (3) with momentum, sellers should come forward.

If King$ would break strong dual support at (2), Metals and Miners would benefit from it. Metals bulls would continue to struggle, should King$ break above dual Fib levels and the top of its 10-year rising channel. What the US$ does here friends, will impact portfolio construction going forward!!!

 

Blog:  KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM/BLOG

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Gold Cup - Horse Racing's Greatest Show, Gambling and 'Going for Gold'

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-17/gold-cup-horse-racings-greatest-show-gambling-and-going-gold

Gold Cup - Horse Racing's Greatest Show, Gambling and 'Going for Gold'

 - Gold Cup at Cheltenham - Most important event on horse racing calendar  

- Gold Cup trophy contains 10 ounces of gold

- Today’s prize is worth over £9,000 in gold terms

- £600 million bets on horses, 220,000 pints of Guinness will be drunk, 9 tonnes of potato eaten 

- Gold constantly and universally awarded as top prize 

- Ultimate prize to award our heroes as early as 408 BC

- Humanity recognises it as very rare and very valuable

- Gold a great prize and a good bet but works best as hedge and a safe haven

- Better to take a 'punt' on gold than the horses

Cheltenham Gold Cup - Wikipedia

 

This week 65,000 people have been gathering in Cheltenham for one of the most important events on the horse racing calendar, the world famous Cheltenham Festival and the Gold Cup race.

Over 25 races will be raced over the four day gathering with £4,305,000 of prize money will be handed out this week at Cheltenham Festival.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most famous race of the festival and happens on the final day of the four-day event. The Gold Cup is the most prestigious of the most prestigious of all National Hunt events and it is sometimes referred to as the Blue Riband of horse jump-racing.

The race takes place over 3 miles 2½ furlongs (5,331 m) and includes 22 fences to be jumped.

The prize? 10 ounces of gold and £575,000. The prize for those who turn up to watch the world famous event? The chance to experience the excitement and fun of race day and likely lose a few bob - with a massive £600 million staked on the outcome of the races. The bookie always wins ... well nearly always.

10 ounces of gold and over half-a-billion British pounds of cash surrounding one event. What does this say about the state of our economy today and how we award our sporting heroes?

Wikimedia

The Greatest Show on Turf

It is nearly 200 years since the most exciting race in the UK calendar was first run in 1819.  230,000 people are expected to attend this year, with 10,000 of them expected to make the special trip from Ireland in order to celebrate their jockey riders, amazing horses and indeed St. Patrick’s Day -  this being March 17th.

And what comes hand in had with horse racing? The big spending, gambling and lots of drinking.

Over 220,000 pints of Guinness will be drunk, 9 tonnes of potato eaten and 3 tonnes of smoked salmon enjoyed. Cash machines will be working hard to keep up with everyone’s spending as they churn out £2.2 million of notes and assist punters to place over £1 million of bets per race.

And what are they all there for? They’re there for the run up to or the main event itself that is the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a near 200 year old race that is the darling of the racing calendar.

What makes it so exciting is that it is the only major race that is not run on the flat. Whilst the predecessor to the Gold Cup race was first run flat in the 19th century it wasn’t until 1924 that there was the  “introduction of a level weights extended three mile steeplechase, called The Cheltenham Gold Cup”.

The Gold Cup is a chance to see the best in horse racing. It is so prestigious that it is rarely cancelled, and is considered to be the most important of steeplechase races. For race-goers the event is a chance to win big, ever hoping that the bookies get it as wrong as they did last year and misplace their odds.

For the riders, trainers and owners the race is not only about the honour that comes with winning but also about getting their hands on the infamous Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I’ve got a golden ticket cup

Today nearly 30 horses and jockeys will run the race of their lives in the hope of bringing home 10 ounces of gold, neatly melted into the form of a small trophy.

As with the Olympic medals and the Oscars, a new gold cup is made each year for the owners. But a gold cup hasn’t always been the reward for this infamous race.

The owner of the first winner, Spectre, received 100 guineas. At the time, the coins would have contained a quarter ounce of gold akin to British gold sovereigns, so 25 ounces of gold in total.

The gold price in 1819 was $19.39, so this prize in gold terms would have been worth $484.75. That same amount of gold today is worth $30,750. Not bad for a prize that was received nearly 200 years ago.

There is less gold in today’s prize cup than there was in that stash of guineas nearly 200 years ago, but 10 ounces is nothing to be sniffed at. With less than 50% of the gold that was on offer when the race was first run in 1819, this year’s cup is worth £9,950.

Is this why we reward the best of the best with gold?

Because it will serve to reward them in decades to come? Really, no one will care about a piece of paper that says they won. What humanity will still believe in, and judge value with, in the years that follow is the most precious metal of all.

Gold gives value to our winners

Whether it’s spending on your 'gold card', or competing for a gold medal, receiving a Nobel Prize or even travelling Gold Class, the yellow metal is still believed to be the best.

We can go back to the early days of gold’s discovery that we regarded gold as the ultimate way to recognise our champions. In his play Plutus, even the comic playwright Aristophanes wrote in 408BC of how Olympians should be awarded with gold .

Olympic first place medal from the Athens Games of 1896 (obverse), from the collection of the Olympic Museum (IOC via Wikimedia)

"Why, Zeus is poor, and I will clearly prove it to you. In the Olympic games, which he founded, and to which he convokes the whole of Greece every four years, why does he only crown the victorious athletes with wild olive? If he were rich he would give them gold.”

Whilst the Greek playwright was joking, his point was a valid one and one that still strikes a chord today. We crown the best amongst us with gold. Even when the headlines have died down, even when no-one can remember who won a famous race four years ago, the winner is still left with a timeless piece of gold that the world will certainly remember the value of.

This is more important than ever when we live in a world that places far greater value on things - many frequently superficial things - that really do not deserve it.

A prize is no better than jewellery or fancy coin

Whilst the cup might contain a whopping ten ounces of gold (more than an Olympic gold medal or Academy Award), this doesn’t mean the price of the metal is reflected in the perceived value of the prize.

In 2010, the 1988 Cheltenham Gold Cup owners had their prize stolen from them . At the time of winning (assuming the make-up of the Cup is the same as it is today) the cup’s gold content was worth £2,446. Today, that same cup is worth £9,950. To the winners, however they could not be objective about its real value. To them, it was understandably worth a lot more.

When it was stolen, the owners offered £15,000 for its return. At the time, the Cup’s owner told the BBC, ‘"What's the point in melting it down? To me it's worth a fortune. It's the sentimental value, not the monetary value that's at play here.” Unfortunately, you can be sure that melting it down is exactly what the thieves planned to do with it.

This is where prizes are similar to collectible coins or jewellery, the price beyond the underlying metal content is purely subjective. Whilst you might buy a commemorative coin for a few thousand dollars, the market may well disagree with you in a few years’ time and deem it only to be worth the few grams of gold that it really is.

The same can be said for jewellery which receives a huge markup when it arrives on the market and also attracts VAT and sales tax - unlike tax free gold coins and bars and tax free silver coins.

Whilst one might argue that the Cheltenham Gold Cup is worth more than its weight in gold, this is only the case for the winners and the small market that is interested in horse racing memorabilia.

The beauty about owning 10 ounces of pure gold bullion, rather than a cup that signifies a particular race, is that you know it will only ever be priced according to the value of the precious metal content and that the market is highly liquid. You will not go from one buyer to the next wondering if you are getting a fair price, or if you will be able to sell it at all.

Gold is for winners, not for the gamblers

Of course, there is only one Cheltenham Gold Cup to be won this week, but there are plenty of opportunities for punters to win big (and lose) at the bookies. For the £600 million plus that is at stake this week, we wonder if some of those gamblers might be better to take a leaf out of the competitors' book and 'go for gold' instead.

Gambling for some is a bit of fun, and you hopefully only gamble what you can afford to lose. But what happens when you lose? You might think that you only gamble small amounts, or just a couple of times a year, so where’s the harm? There probably isn’t much harm but it’s what’s happening with the rest of your money that is where the risk is.

As we have pointed out countless times before, those same bank accounts that punters are using to fund a day at the races are also being used by the banking system to keep their own game of probability and risk and massive speculation going.

Gold is a form of insurance to protect you when this game goes wrong and the house of cards collapses as it began to in 2008.

When it comes to gold, you’re doing the opposite of gambling, you’re buying insurance for the times when others make a bad bet playing with your money. You are taking some of your hard earned 'chips off the table' of the global casino.

What about the winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup today?

We would advise them to not only take a punt on their horses but also make a safe haven punt on gold.

They should also enjoy their hard earned and well deserved victory and take pride in their beautiful Gold Cup Trophy.

Congratulations to them, winning anything is always a good thing and the achievement should be celebrated.

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary

Gold prices hold firm, set for first weekly gain in three (reuters.com)

The Gold Party’s Back on After Yellen Reassures the Market (bloomberg.com)

Gold Seen Climbing as Yellen Sets Scene for Negative Rates (bloomberg.com)

Gold sovereigns hoard found in piano is 'life-changing' stockpile (BBC.com)

Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in ‘hedge against populism’ (irishtimes.com)

Solving the Secret Behind the Chinese Gold Market (thepochtimes.com)

Idaho And Arizona Pass Bills To Remove “Capital Gains Taxes” On Gold And Silver (goldseek.com)

Gold and Silver Price Manipulation: The Biggest Financial Crime in History (goldseek.com)

Feds Hit Debt Limit—Again; Debt Now Exceeds Limit Set in 2008 by $8,550,505,000,000 (cnsnews.com)

Strong Institutional Investment Pushes Silver Prices Higher (silverinstitute.org)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

17 Mar: USD 1,228.75, GBP 991.85 & EUR 1,140.53 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 1,225.60, GBP 998.74 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 1,196.55, GBP 983.56 & EUR 1,127.15 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 1,204.60, GBP 991.39 & EUR 1,140.64 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.08 & EUR 16.21 per ounce
16 Mar: USD 17.46, GBP 14.21 & EUR 16.28 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 16.89, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 17.14, GBP 14.10 & EUR 16.23 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

- Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises
- Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?
- EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
- Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
- Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
- Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
- “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe
- Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling
- Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” – Rickards
- Art Market Bubble Bursting – Gauguin Priced At $85 Million Collapses 74%
- Gold’s Value – Weight, Beauty, Rarity, Peak Gold and Secure Storage – Interview

Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

Interested in learning more about physical gold and silver?
Call GoldCore and speak with a gold and silver specialist today

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Silver; Long-Term bottoming pattern in play?

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/silver-long-term-bottoming-pattern-play

Below looks at Silver Futures over the past decade. The Power of the Pattern in 2011, suggested that metals should be flat to down for years to come. (See 2011 Post Here) Since that posting, Gold and Silver have continued to create a series of lower highs over the past 6-years. Silver remains more than 50% lower than 2011 prices.

Could this trend be attempting to change? Could a long-term reversal pattern be in play? Below looks at Silver Futures over the past decade.

As mentioned earlier, the trend is Silver is down, as it has created a series of lower highs since 2011. It has done the same, since the summer of 2016 as well.

Over the past two years, Silver could be creating a long-term bottoming pattern (Inverse Head & Shoulders) pattern. For the read to be correct, the first thing Silver needs to accomplish is break above 9-month falling channel at (1). If Silver can accomplish a 9-month breakout, the next resistance test Silver would face, is the potential neckline, that comes into play around the $19 zone.

If Silver breaks above the neckline, it could be off to the races, potentially Hi Yo Silver!

Full Disclosure- Premium and Metals members are long Gold Miners (purchased last Friday). GDXJ had it largest volume day in history yesterday.  If Gold, Silver, Copper or mining stocks are something of interest to you, we would be honored if you were a member Metals or Premium member.

 

Website: kimblechartingsolutions.com

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Questions: Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

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Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/gold-18-silver-26-after-dovish-fed-signals-slow-rate-rises

Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Rate Rises

- Gold up 1.8%, silver up 2.6% - Fed signals slow rate rises
- Dollar sells off as Fed raises 0.25% to target range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent on inflation outlook and "ebullient" stocks
- Gold's biggest 1 day percentage gain since September 2016
- Fed raises rates for only the third time since crisis
- Fade out Fed "jibber jabber" and focus on still ultra low rates (see chart)
- Rising rates bullish for gold as seen in 1970s and 2003 to 2007 (see table)
- Silver rose 26% in 2003, 14% in 2004, 29% in 2005 and 46.6% in 2006
- Raise is too little, too late ... Dovish Fed creating asset bubbles
- Dutch pro EU government have marginal win and populist Wilders does not see gains expected
- Pro-EU Dijsselbloem PvdA party likely biggest losers - risking his position as head of  Eurogroup of Euro zone's finance ministers
- Europeans will continue to reject increasingly undemocratic federal EU super state and risk of contagion remains high
- Geopolitical risk in form of Brexit talks and French elections seeing safe haven demand in UK, France and other EU countries

Gold in USD - 24 Hours

Gold rallied 1.8 percent yesterday as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an expected 25 basis points for the second time in three months.

Spot gold maintained those gains and moved as high as $1,228/oz overnight in Asia and gold has consolidated on those gains in European trading.

Gold had its biggest one-day jump since September. The Fed said in its policy statement that further hikes would only be "gradual," with officials sticking to their outlook for two more rate hikes this year and three more in 2018.

Fed raises rates for the third time since crisis
Source: Newsreportonline.com

Silver rose 2.6 percent to $17.31 an ounce and traded another 1% in trading this morning to $17.50 an ounce. Platinum was up 2.8 percent at $965 per ounce while palladium was up 2.5 percent at $771 an ounce.

The Fed remains 'dovish' and signaled just three more rate hikes in 2017 as expected. They attempted to appear hawkish and suggested they would increase interest rates three times in 2017.

It is worth remembering that they promised three rate hikes for 2016 and yet only one rate hike materialised. We expect given the fragile nature of the so called economic recovery that this will be the case again.

It is prudent to focus on what the Fed does rather than what it says.

The Fed has been promising higher interest rates most years since 2008 and yet there have only been three interest rate rises since 2008. Yesterday’s rate rise was only the third rate rise since the 2008 financial crisis.

Source: New York Federal Reserve for Fed Funds Rate, LBMA.org.uk for Gold (PM fix)

Rising interest rates are likely to be bullish for gold as was the case in the 1970s and again in the 2003 to 2007 period (see table above and research note 5 Key Charts Show Rising Interest Rates Good For Gold here.

Silver saw similar gains - rising 26% in 2003, 14% in 2004, 29% in 2005 and 46.6% in 2006.

It is also worth noting that gold has risen from below $1,100 per ounce since the Fed first increased interest rates after the crisis at the end of 2015.

We believe the Federal Reserve is still well "behind the curve" and this latest small interest rate rise is too little, too late. The Dovish Fed is creating asset bubbles with U.S. stocks looking very overvalued indeed.

Many share this view including former senior Fed officials. U.S. interest rates should be on course to more normal levels of around 3% by now given that the Federal Reserve has achieved all of its targets, former Fed governor Heller said yesterday.

Investors were also focusing on Wednesday's elections in the
Netherlands and concerns about contagion in the EU, which is also aiding gold's safe-haven appeal.

The centre right, pro EU government in Holland had a marginal win and populist Wilders did not see the gains that were expected. However it was not all rosy for the EU and Dijsselbloem's PvdA party appeared to be the biggest losers in the election. This means that his position as head of Eurogroup of Euro zone's finance ministers is at risk.

Anti EC and EU super state sentiment remains high and senior EU and EC bureaucrats remain very unpopular. Another example of this is with EU President Donald Tusk who faces a criminal probe in Poland and even his own country will not back him for a second term as EU Council president.

Most European citizens are pro-EU and pro-Europe but are concerned about the increasingly undemocratic, corporate and militaristic Federal super state that certain EU elites are attempting to foist on the citizens of Europe. This important nuance is frequently missed in the simplistic and binary, pro EU, anti EU, "you are either with us or against us" narrative.

Despite the Dutch election, geopolitical risk globally remains high, especially in the EU. This will be seen in the coming 'Hard Brexit' negotiations and the French elections (April 23 and May 7) which will support gold and see continuing safe haven demand for gold in the UK, France and other EU countries.

Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary

Gold and silver are charging (BusinessInsider.com)

Gold Seen Climbing as Yellen Sets Scene for Negative Rates (Bloomberg.com)

Gold rallies as dollar slides on Fed’s ‘dovish hike’ (MarketWatch.com)

Gold hits one-week high as Fed signals only gradual rate hikes (Ruters.com)

London gold rush – ICE to launch clearing before banks are ready (Reuters.com)

UBS' Gordon Sees Better Gold Prices After Fed Hike (Bloomberg.com)

Why the Fed interest-rate hike fueled a rally in gold (MarktWatch.com)

Fed rate hikes + low growth = recession - Stock-market strategist (MarketWatch.com)

Beware the Debt Ceiling (Bloombergquint.com)

Iceland's recovery shows benefits of letting over-reaching banks go bust (Telegrahg.co.uk)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

16 Mar: USD 1,225.60, GBP 998.74 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 1,196.55, GBP 983.56 & EUR 1,127.15 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 1,204.60, GBP 991.39 & EUR 1,140.64 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 1,213.30, GBP 997.70 & EUR 1,149.00 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

16 Mar: USD 17.46, GBP 14.21 & EUR 16.28 per ounce
15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 16.89, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 17.14, GBP 14.10 & EUR 16.23 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.32 & EUR 16.48 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

- Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?
- EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
- Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
- Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
- Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
- “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe
- Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling
- Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” – Rickards
- Art Market Bubble Bursting – Gauguin Priced At $85 Million Collapses 74%
- Gold’s Value – Weight, Beauty, Rarity, Peak Gold and Secure Storage – Interview
- Oscars Debacle – Movies More Costly As Dollar Devalued

Interested in learning more about physical gold and silver?
Call GoldCore and speak with a gold and silver specialist today

Read More

Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929?

Published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-15/most-overvalued-stock-market-record-%E2%80%94-worse-1929

Stock Market Most Overvalued On Record — Worse Than 1929?

The US stock market today has never been more dangerous and overvalued, according to respected Wall Street market analyst John Hussman.

Indeed, Hussman goes as far as to say that "this is the most dangerous and overvalued stock market on record — worse than 2007, worse than 2000, even worse than 1929" as reported by Marketwatch.

For some months now, Hussman of Hussman Funds' has been warning in his research that investors are ignoring extremely high stock market valuations and are being lulled into a false sense of security by central bank liquidity, massive quantitative easing and zero percent and negative interest rates.

Hussman begins his latest research note by quoting the late, great Sir John Templeton:

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

He then warns

“A week ago, bullish sentiment among investment advisers soared to the highest level in 30 years (Investor’s Intelligence), joined last week by a 16-year high in consumer confidence. When one recognises that the prior peak in bullish sentiment corresponds to the 1987 market extreme, and the prior peak in consumer confidence corresponds to the 2000 bubble, Sir Templeton’s words take on both relevance and urgency.”

Hussman advises investors become more defensive, because the market could be about to enter a brutal bear market as seen throughout history.

Huge crowds gather in shock at the New York Stock Exchange after 1929 stock-market crash. Getty Images/Keystone/Staff

Hussman Funds provide in-depth analytical research on the US stock market. They use long-term valuation models, reversion to the mean and mathematics to support their views.

Dr Hussman says what we’re currently seeing is worse than 2007 when the global financial crisis brought the world economy to its knees, worse than 2000 when the tech bubble popped and caused a market catastrophe, and even worse than the biblical Wall Street 1929 crash.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently breached the hugely important psychological level of 20,000 and has recently surged over 20,100 to 21,115.

Throughout history, the first breach of these important psychological resistance levels is usually the end of — rather than the beginning of — a stock market boom. After the initial breach of the barrier, it takes years for the market to make a permanent breach through these ‘barriers’ (see below).

Is this time different?

We do not know and no one has a crystal ball, however it is important to realise that the U.S. stock markets and bond markets are priced for perfection, despite a very uncertain outlook for the U.S. and the world.

Brexit, the risk of Frexit and EU contagion, uncertainty created by the Trump Presidency and considerable geopolitical risk from a myriad of unresolved conflicts - from North Korea to Russia to Iran and the geo-political mess that is the Middle East.

These over valued stock markets are also vulnerable given the scale of over valuation that is evident in bond markets and the real risk of a very significant sell off in global bond markets.

Bond markets have come under pressure in recent days with yields rising in many key markets. Italian debt looks particularly vulnerable with Italian 10 year yields rising and concerns that a break above 2.50% in the third largest bond market in the world (debt valued at €2.2 Trillion) has the potential to jettison Italy out of the European monetary union.

Bond guru Bill Gross is also warning that investors need to keep an watchful eye on the U.S. 10 year bond yield as a breach of 2.6% will mean that "a secular bear bond market has begun."

A massively indebted EU and U.S., which reaches the debt ceiling today, with indebted households and fragile economic recoveries will struggle when interest rates revert back to more normal levels.

Markets are priced for perfection and yet the political, financial, economic and monetary outlook is less than perfect. Euphoria and "irrational exuberance" will inevitably revert to "fear and loathing".

The question is when and by what one catalyst or combination of catalysts?

Given the scale of the risks facing investors and pension owners today, it is prudent to reduce allocations to stocks and bonds and increase allocations to physical gold.

Hussman's Research Comment Can Be Accessed Here

Access Daily and Weekly Updates Here

 

Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary

Global stocks falter ahead of Fed rate decision and pound sinks to eight-week low as Brexit looms (Telegraph.co.uk)

Gold prices firm ahead of Fed announcement (Reuters.com)

Gold Prices Hold Support, Weaker Equities Underpin Investor Demand (EconomicCalendar.com)

Nobel Prize winner Sir Fraser Stoddart hopes to turn gold mines green (Telegraph.co.uk)

Gold rush! California flooding caused by heavy winter rains exposes gold veins hidden for 200 years (DailyMail.co.uk)

Most overvalued stock market on record — Worse than 1929 (MarketWatch.com)

These Charts Question Stocks for the Long Term Mantra (ZeroHedge.com)

The Mystery Of The Treasury's Disappearing Cash (ZeroHedge.com)

Beware the Ides of March (InternationalMan.com)

Only Way to Stop Indians Buying Gold? Take Away Their Cash (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

15 Mar: USD 1,202.25, GBP 986.69 & EUR 1,132.04 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 1,203.55, GBP 992.33 & EUR 1,130.86 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 1,207.80, GBP 989.79 & EUR 1,132.07 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 1,196.55, GBP 983.56 & EUR 1,127.15 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 1,204.60, GBP 991.39 & EUR 1,140.64 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 1,213.30, GBP 997.70 & EUR 1,149.00 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 1,223.70, GBP 1,003.56 & EUR 1,157.62 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

15 Mar: USD 16.91, GBP 13.87 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
14 Mar: USD 17.00, GBP 14.02 & EUR 15.99 per ounce
13 Mar: USD 17.02, GBP 13.92 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
10 Mar: USD 16.89, GBP 13.91 & EUR 15.92 per ounce
09 Mar: USD 17.14, GBP 14.10 & EUR 16.23 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 17.40, GBP 14.32 & EUR 16.48 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 17.70, GBP 14.52 & EUR 16.74 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

- EU Crisis Is Existential – Importance of Tomorrow’s Vote
- Digital Gold On Blockchain – For Now Caveat Emptor
- Gold $10,000 Coming – “Time To Prepare Is Now”
- Silver Very Undervalued from Historical Perpective of Ancient Greece
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware Unallocated Gold Accounts With Indebted Bullion Banks and Mints (Part II)
- Gold Investing 101 – Beware eBay, Collectibles and “Pure” Gold Coins that are Gold Plated
- “Think About and Prepare For” Euro Catastrophe
- Silver On Sale – 4% Fall On Massive $2 Billion of Futures Selling
- Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” – Rickards
- Art Market Bubble Bursting – Gauguin Priced At $85 Million Collapses 74%
- Gold’s Value – Weight, Beauty, Rarity, Peak Gold and Secure Storage – Interview
- Oscars Debacle – Movies More Costly As Dollar Devalued
- Gold Up 9% YTD – 4th Higher Weekly Close and Breaks Resistance At $1,250/oz

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