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The gold price should rise in the medium and long term on global risks and the Trump Presidency, according to leading research consultancy Capital Economics.
The recent sharp gold price fall is again causing jitters among some investors who forget that gold remains more than 14% higher in dollar terms, 16.5% higher in euro terms and 36% higher in sterling terms year to date. Thus, gold is outperforming most stock market indices so far this year.
Capital Economics commodities economist, Simona Gambarini suggests in the World Gold Council's 'Gold Investor October 2016' newsletter there is further upside to the gold price even if US interest rates begin to rise. Hence its continuing importance as a diversification and as a safe haven asset.
"Going forward, lingering global risks should ensure that demand for gold as a safe haven asset remains elevated even in light of Fed tightening.”
Gold is likely to benefit from Trump's presidency for four reasons:
- More aggressive fiscal policy could increase domestic demand and inflation. Many investors argue that gold is a good hedge of inflation, although its inflation-adjusted performance shows otherwise. Still, there could be strong demand for gold. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in response to higher inflation, higher inflation should keep real rates low, supporting gold; gold does not bear any interest.
- If the protectionist policies that Trump threatened (like tariffs on China) trigger a trade war, US exports would suffer, and an economic slowdown would help lift gold prices.
- Similarly, Trump's geopolitical policies could cause more uncertainty, prompting some investors to buy gold for safety.
- Trump has touted a return to a gold-based monetary system. That's very unlikely, however.
In short, the bullish view on gold under Trump rests on the expectation that his policies would keep the world on edge, and that his fiscal spending plans would accelerate inflation. Gambarini forecasts that gold will rally to $1,450 per ounce by the end of 2017.
Once again it is time to fade the noise and fearful sentiment in the gold market and focus on the long term diversification benefits of gold.
Read full excellent 'Gold Investor October 2016' here
Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary
Gold crawls away from lowest in over 5 mths on bargain-hunting (Reuters.com)
Asian Currencies Tumble to Seven-Year Low Amid Stock Outflows (Bloomberg.com)
Hedge Fund Gold Buyers Caught Out by Trump Vote as Prices Plunge (Bloomberg.com)
Soros Sells Off Gold ETF, Doubles Stack In Barrick Gold (Bloomberg.com)
Mnuchin Said to Be Top Treasury Pick Among Trump's Advisers (Bloomberg.com)
What Trump’s Stunning Upset Means for Markets (GoldSeek.com)
Why gold should still be the winner from a Trump presidency (TrustNet.com)
Greenspan Sees Bond Yields Climbing as High as 5 Percent Again (Bloomberg.com)
Will Trump ride to Europe’s rescue? (DavidMCWilliams.ie)
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
15 Nov: USD 1,228.90, GBP 998.86 & EUR 1,138.70 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,222.60, GBP 997.80 & EUR 1,136.53 per ounce
11 Nov: USD 1,255.65, GBP 999.19 & EUR 1,154.45 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 1,280.90, GBP 1,034.07 & EUR 1,175.48 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,304.55, GBP 1,050.42 & EUR 1,176.84 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,284.00, GBP 1,034.26 & EUR 1,162.02 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,286.80, GBP 1,036.13 & EUR 1,162.50 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
15 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 13.68 & EUR 15.80 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 17.20, GBP 13.73 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
11 Nov: USD 18.59, GBP 14.73 & EUR 17.09 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 18.75, GBP 15.11 & EUR 17.20 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 18.81, GBP 15.12 & EUR 16.96 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 18.26, GBP 14.72 & EUR 16.54 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 18.22, GBP 14.67 & EUR 16.47 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
- President Trump – Why Market Loves Him and Experts Wrong
- ‘Helicopter Money President’ Trump To Create Inflation and Gold Will Rise
- Central Bank Gold Demand continues in Q3
- Trump Victory Sends Gold Surging 5%
- An uncertain election outcome looks good for gold
- Ignore past elections, this one’s too uncertain
- Gold may be the only winner in US elections
- The London Gold Market – ripe for take-over by China?
- Diwali, Gold and India – Is Love Affair Over?
- Silver Krugerrands By South African Mint Coming Soon – Massive Clearance Sale on Gold Krugerrands
- Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Rickards
- World Is Out of Weapons
- Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
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